Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 30.959340 34.537044 38.648563 43.794102 50.167262 57.953168 68.438713
2025-07-06 27.057770 31.903175 38.042193 46.684327 59.088853 77.309010 108.689780
2025-07-13 23.388204 28.568708 35.569610 46.285984 63.545063 93.371043 159.974939
2025-07-20 21.045110 26.430615 34.097129 46.701164 69.271132 115.399620 258.509348
2025-07-27 19.314170 24.800577 32.949215 47.189628 75.294344 143.574007 473.157312
2025-08-03 17.841983 23.303418 31.688262 47.086804 80.142144 175.122925 1026.664741
2025-08-10 16.538258 21.879846 30.291280 46.355731 83.339019 207.543117 3241.662953
2025-08-17 15.601155 20.902558 29.464165 46.484533 88.730970 260.087323 NaN
2025-08-24 14.731091 19.935092 28.510775 46.129308 92.785546 320.406881 NaN
2025-08-31 13.933606 19.007586 27.506644 45.448746 95.684617 389.179356 NaN
2025-09-07 13.259151 18.221799 26.661566 44.943155 99.014109 485.800411 NaN
2025-09-14 12.693009 17.568686 25.983831 44.682377 103.191958 636.733295 NaN
2025-09-21 12.066572 16.779638 24.993382 43.557059 103.943399 773.044350 NaN
2025-09-28 11.909561 16.770053 25.466402 46.068588 121.129155 1958.272220 NaN
2025-10-05 11.439689 16.189198 24.777507 45.522841 124.935865 3507.205941 NaN
2025-10-12 11.098022 15.808474 24.445415 45.855485 133.635301 16543.351033 NaN
2025-10-19 10.794033 15.473441 24.171229 46.296701 143.772151 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 10.464699 15.072986 23.727150 46.182272 150.980140 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 10.109692 14.607167 23.110586 45.467460 154.029129 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 9.848612 14.296962 22.793998 45.589273 163.461087 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 9.568835 13.938269 22.347051 45.243847 169.487622 NaN NaN
2025-11-23 9.283641 13.556387 21.823925 44.583893 172.676968 NaN NaN
2025-11-30 9.028887 13.219316 21.374928 44.093668 177.236243 NaN NaN